With over half of the WNBA regular season completed, the chase for the championship will resume after the Olympic Break (July 21-August 14).
As teams prepare for the final sprint toward the playoffs, there are certain statistical landmarks to attain in order to prove worthy of the crown.
Current Standings
The following teams are the WNBA teams with winning records and are considered championship contenders:
- New York (21-4)
- Connecticut (18-6)
- Minnesota (17-8)
- Seattle (17-8)
- Las Vegas (16-8)
- Phoenix (13-12)
Historical Data
The understanding of the math behind three-pointers has drastically changed the game of basketball in recent years in terms of spacing, shot selection and defensive strategy. The history of the WNBA can be broken down into three stages based on the average percentage of field-goal attempts from three-point range (i.e., three-point attempt rate, or 3PAr).
In the first nine WNBA seasons from 1997 to 2005, about one in every five field-goal attempts were three-pointers (21.3% 3PAr). Teams averaged 13.1 attempts per game.
Between 2006-2017, about one in every four attempts were threes (23.9% 3PAr). Teams averaged 15.8 attempts per game.
The average 3PAr over the past seven seasons is close to one in every three field-goal attempts (31.1%). Teams are averaging 21.3 attempts per game since 2018.
The seven highest 3PAr in league history have been each of the last seven seasons. This includes the current 2024 season where teams have attempted a three 33.3% of the time. This mark is on pace to break the current record of 32.9% set in 2022.
Interestingly, three-point percentage has remained consistent. Between 1997 and 2005, the league average for three-point percentage was 33.3%. It is slightly higher between 2018 to 2024 with the league average at 34.3%.
#WNBA Historical Data:
Although 3P% hasn't changed much over the years, 3PAr (percentage of FGA from 3P) has.
Averages from 1997-2017:
*4.9-14.5 3P (33.7%); 0.230 3PArAverages from 2018-2024
*7.3-21.2 3P (34.4%); 0.310 3PAr pic.twitter.com/HgZsHpGKKP— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) June 19, 2024
Using long-term historical data to see which teams from this season are favored to win the title doesn’t make sense due to the league-wide emphasis on three-pointers. Instead, this season’s six contenders will be compared with the other teams from 2018 to today.
What stats have the strongest correlation to winning? What do the past twelve WNBA Finals teams have in common? Which teams this season are on track to make it to the end?
Offensive Rating
Definition: Points scored per 100 possessions
Goal: 108.0
“Defense wins championships” is a common saying in the basketball community. It is simply not true, especially in the WNBA.
There have been 15 teams since 2018 that have a defensive rating under 100. Only five of them appeared in the WNBA Finals (two champions – Seattle in 2020 and Las Vegas in 2023).
Conversely, there have been 15 teams since 2018 that have an offensive rating above 108. Out of those 15, nine made the WNBA Finals. Five of the last six champions were above 108.
New York currently leads the league with an offensive rating of 110.0. Las Vegas is second at 108.9. Both teams have the weapons and firepower to consistently win games in the playoffs. They combined to have seven All-Stars, and all seven can be the star of any game.
The next three teams in offensive rating are Connecticut (105.9), Phoenix (104.8) and Seattle (104.7). They have some work to do to get to the 108 threshold.
After an electrifying start, Minnesota has cooled down considerably. They are currently 7th in offensive rating at 102.8.
The @minnesotalynx are absolutely lighting it up this season from 3P. The difference between them and 2nd place in 3P% is greater than the difference between 2nd place and last place! #WNBA https://t.co/RDlNUGPskD pic.twitter.com/2WnRaPxeib
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) June 14, 2024
Connecticut was able to make the Finals in 2019 despite a sub-par offensive rating of 102.4. However, they were able to overachieve in the playoffs that season by increasing their offensive rating to 110.7. They took Washington to five games in the Finals but lost 89-78 in Game 5.
The Mystics’ offensive rating of 115.9 in 2019 is a WNBA record. They were even better in the playoffs with an offensive rating of 116.3. In the Finals, they posted an incredible 117.3 offensive rating against the defensive-minded Sun.
Just another example that offense, not defense, wins championships.
Net Rating
Definition: Point differential per 100 possessions
Goal: +7.6
Teams that win championships typically play like champions throughout the season. They consistently dominate the competition on both ends…especially offense.
Offensive rating and defensive rating levels the playing field by accounting for pace. There have been 10 teams since 2018 that have finished with a net rating of +7.6 or higher. Eight of the 10 teams made the Finals, and five of them won the championship.
Four teams in the league this season have net ratings of +7.6 or higher. New York leads the way at +11.5, Connecticut is second at +9.1, Seattle is third at +8.3, and Minnesota’s +7.8 net rating is fourth. Las Vegas has a solid net rating of +7.0 this season, good for fifth in the league.
Phoenix’s net rating is a dismal -2.6, seventh in the league. The lowest net rating in the history of the WNBA for a champion was +1.6 by Chicago in 2021.
The 2021 season was the exception to a lot of rules. During the regular season, top-seeded Connecticut had a net rating of +13.2 and the second-place Las Vegas Aces were right behind at +11.1. The Aces got knocked out in the semifinals by the third-place Phoenix Mercury in the final game of the best-of-five series. The Sun lost to sixth-place Chicago in the semifinals.
After going 16-16 in the regular season, the Sky defeated the seventh-place Dallas Wings in the first round of the playoffs. Then, they knocked out the third-place Minnesota Lynx in the second round. Both rounds consisted of only one game.
They continued their run by beating Connecticut 3-1 in the best-of-five semifinals. They defeated Phoenix 3-1 in the best-of-five Finals.
Kahleah Copper averaged 17.7 points in the playoffs and was named Finals MVP. Courtney Vandersloot tore through the playoffs averaging 13.0 points, 10.2 assists, and 5.4 rebounds. Candace Parker averaged a solid 13.8 points and 8.4 rebounds.
Between 2018 and 2023, 31 teams had a higher net rating than Chicago’s +1.6 in the regular season. During their playoff run, however, the Sky destroyed the teams in their path with a +11.3 in ten playoff games.
Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) Difference
Definition: Difference in offensive and defensive field goal percentage adjusting for three-pointers being 1.5 times more valuable than two-pointers
Goal: +1.3%
Shooting has the largest correlation to winning out of all of the four factors. Being able to create advantages and knock down open shots is the goal of offenses. Forcing tough, contested twos is the goal of almost every defense.
It’s a simple idea, but it is very difficult to attain. Finding a balance of players’ skills on both ends remains a daunting challenge for coaches.
There have been 28 teams since 2018 that have an offensive eFG% at least 1.3 percentage points greater than their opponents’ eFG%. Eleven of the 12 Finals teams are on that list. Only Connecticut in 2019 had a difference of less than 1.3. That year, they shot 47.6% offensively and gave up 48.7% defensively (-1.1%).
Minnesota’s +6.0% is first in the league this season, followed by New York (+5.4%), Las Vegas (+3.5%), and Seattle (+1.3%).
Phoenix is fifth in the league (+0.4%) and would have to improve dramatically, especially on defense, to get into the top tier of contenders.
Connecticut will have to defy the odds again if they hope to make it to the Finals this season. They are currently seventh in the league with a -0.8% eFG% difference. The Sun hope the addition of Marina Mabrey will bolster their offensive shooting efficiency. Connecticut is currently ninth in the WNBA with an eFG% of 48.0%.
TRADE ALERT: Connecticut Sun Acquires Veteran Guard Marina Mabrey
Details: https://t.co/0VlSWBz2oe pic.twitter.com/dHfEmiZWV8
— Connecticut Sun PR (@CTSunPR) July 17, 2024
Looking Ahead
New York has positioned itself at the top of the league. Using experience from last season and time for the core to jell, the Liberty are the only team in the league that has met all of the thresholds of recent championship teams. They are able to win many different ways which is a massive benefit in the playoffs.
Las Vegas started the season 6-6 without Chelsea Gray in the lineup. They had a net rating of +1.4 in those 12 games. With Gray playing, the Aces are 10-2 with a net rating of +12.4. They do have five players, including Gray, playing in the Olympics, but should contend for a third straight title if they are healthy for the rest of the season.
That's a wrap on #WNBAAllStar 🇺🇸👏
Aces in Paris 🔜 pic.twitter.com/evU3kta4E8
— Las Vegas Aces (@LVAces) July 21, 2024
Seattle would have to make an offensive turnaround similar to Chicago in 2021. Defensively, the Storm have been great. They are second in defensive rating and lead the league in steals and blocks. It hasn’t been as smooth on offense, especially when it comes to shooting. The Storm are 10th in eFG% at 47.6%. They have the personnel to make a run, but like New York last year, they may need a year to grow together – especially on the offensive end.
Connecticut has been on the doorstep for a long time, but they have failed to finish on top. Despite their scorching-hot start and an 18-6 overall record, the Sun have struggled against the top teams in the league. Against teams with winning records, Connecticut is 2-5 with a net rating of -6.3 and a -8.0% eFG% difference. They have positioned themselves to advance in the playoffs, but a deep run will require some tough decisions with the rotation and a massive improvement offensively.
Minnesota was 14-4 with an offensive rating of 106.3 (3rd in the WNBA) after defeating Dallas on June 27th. Since then, the Lynx’s offense has plummeted and are 4-4. Their offensive rating of 96.5 during that stretch is second to last. Only Atlanta, 1-8 since June 27th, has a worse offensive rating (94.4). Minnesota’s MVP candidate, Napheesa Collier, has missed the last five games with plantar fasciitis. If she is healthy after the Olympics, the Lynx should be able to get back to where they were to start the season.
Phoenix has the potential to upset a team in the playoffs, but it will be hard for them to sustain excellence for long stretches. Offensively, they live and die by the three. In wins, they shoot 38.9% from three; in losses, they shoot 28.5%. Their 107.4 defensive rating is currently ninth in the league.
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