After an NBA Finals appearance, many believed the Miami Heat would pick up where they left off when the 2020-21 season started.
Contrary to those beliefs, the season couldn’t have started much worse. The team looked lifeless and were on the verge of a lost season. Now, they sit 6th in the Eastern Conference after an amazing stretch. How did they get to this point?
A Dreadful Start: Games 1-21
The Heat started the season in a disappointing manner. On February 3, the team was 7-14 and 13th in the East. They played subpar basketball when they were healthy, but they were also handed their fair share of misfortune.
While their start was not what was expected, there were some things that were out of their control. Jimmy Butler played only nine games due to COVID protocols, Tyler Herro played just 14 due to a back injury, Goran Dragic played 16 sporadically due to injuries, Avery Bradley appeared in just 10 due to a knee injury and COVID protocol and Meyers Leonard, though he wasn’t playing much, suffered a season-ending shoulder injury and has since exiled himself from the team due to dropping an anti-Semitic slur earlier this month.
The Heat were beat up, and they were beat up bad. But this isn’t an excuse for everything.
Though they only played in eight of the first 21 games as a trio, Butler, Dragic and Bam Adebayo did not perform to expectations when they were together. In those games, the team went 3-5 and lost to the Magic, Hornets and Wizards as a near-healthy team. This was very upsetting considering these are expected to be wins for the reigning Eastern Conference champions.
The Heat have always been dependent on the three-point shot and tend to live or die on it. During their horrid start, the team shot 32.3% (169/524) from three in losses. In their seven wins, they shot 40.8% (104/255).
A drastic difference.
Additionally, Miami’s defense was lackluster. They were scoring 106.5 but allowing 111.9 points per game (-5.4 differential). This isn’t a Heat-like characteristic. For example, the team scored 112 and surrendered only 108.9 points per game last season (+3.1 differential).
From January 12 to February 3, the Heat went a putrid 3-10 with a five-game losing streak smack in the center. Considering they don’t own their first round pick this year, losing is not an option. All in all, COVID and injuries struck the team, so it’s understandable how their record would reflect their best players weren’t playing.
The worst part is this wouldn’t even be their lowest point of the first half.
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Lowest Point Ignites a Hot-Streak: Games 22-36
On February 17, the Heat reached their lowest point after a three-game skid on a west-coast trip that dropped them to 11-17. The difference between here and 7-14 is that there were no more excuses. Injuries and COVID weren’t affecting the team as much as they once were. The team was nearing full health and had Butler, Dragic and Herro intact.
The Heat did embark on a four-game win streak with wins over the Wizards, Knicks (twice) and Rockets, but they dropped three straight games against the Jazz, Clippers and Warriors. LAC was without Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and Patrick Beverley, yet the Heat still couldn’t win. They also blew a 61-45 halftime lead and lost to the Warriors in overtime, who were without Draymond Green and James Wiseman.
After dropping those easily winnable games, many fans started wondering if this was going to be a lost season. If the Heat didn’t turn it on after this, the team would be in trouble.
From that point forward, the Heat became the one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The team ripped an 11-4 run in a 15-game span with a six-game win streak in between. They also took down two of the best teams in the league in the Lakers (24-13) and Jazz (27-9).
The Heat clicked on all cylinders in during their hot streak. They scored 107.2 points per game, but the best improvement was how they held their opponents to 103.5 points per game in those 15 games.
LONGEST ACTIVE WIN STREAK IN THE ASSOCIATION
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 1, 2021
During the 15-game span, every player seemed to be on fire. The Heat had seven players averaging double figures: Jimmy, Bam, Kendrick Nunn, Herro, Dragic, Duncan Robinson and Kelly Olynyk.
- Jimmy played in 13-of-15 games and is playing out of his mind, averaging a near triple double with 21.8 points, 9.1 assists and 8.4 rebounds per game.
- Bam picked up an injury towards the end, but he played 14 games and averaged 18.2 points and 9.6 rebounds per game. He also shot 83.8% from the line on 5.7 attempts per game.
- Nunn started 14-of-15 games and gave the Heat some great minutes while averaging 16.1 points per game.
- Herro returned from his hip injury and averaged 14.1 points on 41.7% shooting in his 11 games.
- Dragic played in just six games, but he averaged 15 points per game on an impressive 47.7% from the field. The 34-year-old was forced to start three games despite his role as a sixth-man.
- Robinson averaged 12 points per game on 36% from three. While the numbers won’t show it, his defense has improved immensely.
- Olynyk, despite being one of the more inconsistent players on the Heat, started all 15 games and averaged 10.7 points per game on the team’s 11-4 run. He shot 48.1% from the field and played 26.7 minutes per game.
After their disappointing 7-14 start, the Heat astonishingly walked into the All-Star break .500 (18-18).
The Heat are 7-1 in their last 8 games and go into the #NBAAllStar break as the 6th seed in the East.
Bam and Jimmy leading the way 💪😤#HEATTwitter pic.twitter.com/Lg58Lp5eQh
— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) March 6, 2021
Hope For The Second Half
After their disastrous start, the fact that the Heat are sitting at 18-18 and the No. 6 seed in the Eastern Conference has to be considered a success. After going into the break on fire, the team has everything going its way to secure a top spot in the East.
Not only do the Heat have the second-easiest remaining schedule, they also have 18 of their 36 games at the American Airlines Arena– the most in the league. Working for home-court advantage while at home is a blessing.
While it’s not as noticeable thus far this season (10-8 home, 8-10 road), they went 27-5 at home and 14-19 on the road last season before the Bubble. If this is any indication, the Heat should have much more success than they did initially, though health is a large part of this.
Good morning.
The Heat have the second easiest schedule in the NBA the rest of the way
— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) March 6, 2021
The team is well-rested after a full week off and is as healthy as they have been this season. Jimmy (20.5 PPG), Bam (19.2 PPG), Dragic (14.8 PPG) and Herro (15.8 PPG) will be asked to carry this team into the promised land.
They won’t being doing it alone, though. The reemergence of Kendrick Nunn and the all-around play of Duncan Robinson have been underrated impacts on the team’s success.
You'll hear more about this tonight on @5OTF_ , but…
What if I told you that the Butler/Bam/Dragic trio has played a total of 79 minutes together.
And that's 65th on the team in terms of trios, behind the Bam/Bradley/Robinson trio and the Precious/Duncan/Vincent trio?
— Five Reasons Sports 🏀🏈⚾️🏒⚽️ (@5ReasonsSports) March 7, 2021
Miami has began to fix up their defensive issues during the last 15 games with their opponents scoring just 103.5 points per contest, but this will have to carry over into the final 36 games for the Heat to continue to win.
An underrated angle that many may not think about is the underdog mentality that Jimmy and Bam will have, even more than they already do. They were snubbed as All-Stars and they know that. Expect the Heat’s two stars to go ballistic in the second half of the season. They’re gonna want everyone to know they messed up.
Enjoy the break, #HEATTwitter the 2nd half is gonna be fun! #SpoKnows@MiamiHEAT // @JBLaudio pic.twitter.com/hVgvzEnIjb
— Miami HEAT (@MiamiHEAT) March 6, 2021
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