The Minnesota Lynx were ahead by two early in the fourth quarter at Phoenix in early June.
The Mercury’s 6-foot-8 center Brittney Griner was posting up on the left block as the Lynx’s Alanna Smith worked to front her. Smith lunged for the ball on the post entry and got a hand on the ball.
It wasn’t enough. As Smith collapsed to the floor, her teammate Napheesa Collier rotated over to stop Griner.
This caused a defensive domino effect.
Natisha Hiedeman left sharpshooter Sophie Cunningham on the right wing to take away a layup from a cutting Rebecca Allen. Cunningham was left wide open.
Lynx guard Kayla McBride left Diana Taurasi, one of the greatest shooters in history, alone in the left slot to take away Cunningham’s potential three-point attempt. McBride was trusting that someone (in this case Bridget Carleton on the left wing) would rotate over to take away a potential three by Taurasi.
That, of course, would leave another shooter, Kahleah Copper, wide open. Carleton was hoping Smith would recover to defend Copper.
Griner correctly read the rotation and looked to kick out to Cunningham for a three. Luckily for the Lynx, Collier was able to deflect Griner’s pass attempt to Cunningham. That allowed McBride to step in front of Cunningham and intercept the ball.
Crisis averted…for the Lynx.
The turnover created a classic fastbreak with Cunningham and Taurasi defending the charging Lynx. As McBride dribbled down the sideline, Collier was behind the ball and sprinting down the middle of the floor.
Carleton was ahead of the ball on the opposite sideline. Instead of breaking toward the rim, however, she floated down the sideline.
Mercury coach Nate Tibbetts started yelling and galloping with Carleton. McBride hit a streaking Collier at the top of the key. Without hesitation or breaking stride, Collier found Carleton on the wing.
As the ball hit Carleton’s hands, Tibbetts stopped. He put his head down and his hands behind his back. He knew.
Carleton’s three splashed through the net as Tibbetts looked up to confirm his thoughts. Minnesota was now ahead by five.
The entire sequence took nine seconds. Bridget Carleton was 0-for-4 from the field before that shot, but it didn’t matter. It didn’t matter to Collier. It didn’t matter to Tibbetts. And it certainly didn’t matter to Carleton, who shot it without thinking twice.
Three-Point Attempt Rate (3PAr)
Carleton is having a sensational season. She is shooting a sizzling 43.5% from three this year on 5.2 attempts per game. An advanced statistic called three-point attempt rate (3PAr) shows that 73.4% of her field-goal attempts are threes.
Carleton leads the league in 3PAr this season and currently has the sixth highest all-time (using Basketball Reference’s “WNBA Rate Statistic Requirements” and adjusting for the number of games played in the WNBA regular season each season). Cunningham is third in the WNBA this season with a 3PAr of 70.3%. McBride is fifth (63.8%), Taurasi is 11th (58.8%) and Allen is 13th (55.9%).
The evolution of 3PAr helps explain how the WNBA has changed since its inaugural season of 1997. In the first two seasons of the WNBA, the 3PAr was under 20%. There was a spike in 2012 when it reached a record-high 26.6%. That mark stood until 2018, when the it spiked to 28.4%.
The 2018 season marks the beginning of the three-point revolution. Between 1997 and 2017, the league’s 3PAr was 22.9%. From 2018 to 2024, the 3PAr has risen to 31.2% – an astronomical 36.2% increase (8.3/22.9 = 36.2% change).
This season, teams are shooting threes on 33.3% of their attempts which would eclipse the record of 32.9% in 2022.
In the first 2 seasons (‘97 & ‘98), the 3PAr (3PA/FGA) was under 20%. It reached a record high in 2012 (26.6%). Then in 2018 it exploded.
1997-2017: 22.9% 3PAr
2018-2024: 31.2% 3PArCurrent season: 33.3% 3PAr (new record)
**3Pt% has largely remained constant**
(2/6) pic.twitter.com/HyAf3LTpub
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) August 2, 2024
The Lynx entered the WNBA in 1999. They led the league in 3PAr in the franchise’s first three seasons – 31.3% in 1999, 31.2% in 2000 and 30.5% in 2021. In 2020, they set a new franchise record with a 32.1% 3PAr even though they finished fifth in the league in 3PAr that season.
This season, the Lynx have a 3PAr of 37.8%. Incredibly, they are currently fifth in the league this year. Six of the top 15 3PAr in history are from this season with the Lynx currently in 12th.
6 teams from the 2024 season are currently in the top 15 all-time in 3PAr.
The @nyliberty are number 1 (and 2, and 3, and 4, and 5…all from the past 5 seasons).
The record before 2018 is 33.8% by @seattlestorm in 2012 (26th all-time). That would rank 8th this season.
(3/6) pic.twitter.com/z6pCZxWouN
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) August 2, 2024
There have been 61 players in history who have shot at least 60% of their attempts from three. Over half of them have been from the past five seasons, including ten so far this season.
Although the number of attempts has continued to increase, the overall three-point percentage (3P%) has largely remained constant. The 3P% between 1997 and 2017 was 33.7%. It is 34.3% since the 2018 season. Even posts have caught the three-point bug.
From 1997 to 2017, posts (those with center listed in their positions and who had enough FGA to qualify for end-of-season statistics) shot 32.8% from three, but only had a 6.2% 3PAr. Since 2018, posts are shooting threes 13.6% of the time with a 3P% of 34.7%.
Until the 3P% starts to fall, teams are going to continue to push the limits of 3PAr.
Positive Ripple Effects
With the heavy shift towards the three-point line, the game has changed in a number of ways.
One fundamental change has been in the increased number of possessions per game (poss/gm). The emphasis on transition threes and a wider range in shot selection has increased the pace.
Between 1997 and 2017, there were 73.7 poss/gm. Since the 2018 season, the average jumped to 78.5 poss/gm. Therefore, stats based on totals or average per game will be slightly inflated compared to earlier seasons.
For example, there are currently six players in the all-time top 20 for three-pointers made per game for a season. McBride leads the way with 3.04 (7th). There are five players in the all-time top 20 for three-point attempts per game for a season. Arike Ogunbowale of Dallas is currently 4th with 8.70.
Related to the pace of the game is the increase in assists and a decrease in turnovers. The risk of turnovers due to over-passing has been mitigated as transition possessions tend to end after one or two passes.
A large number of threes are assisted in the halfcourt as well. The assist-to-turnover ratio (A:TO) has increased from 1.08 before the 2018 season to 1.48 since 2018. That is a substantial 37.0% increase.
Positive Ripple Effects:
1) AST to TO Ratio
1997-2017: 1.08 A:TO
2018-2024: 1.48 A:TOA 37% increase!
2) More possessions
1997-2017: 73.7 poss/gm
2018-2024: 78.5 poss/gmTherefore, many per game averages will be inflated due to more possessions in a game
(4/6) pic.twitter.com/8twPOFb47J
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) August 2, 2024
Overall, the three-point revolution has positively affected offensive rating (ORtg), or points per 100 possessions. From 1997 to 2017, the average ORtg was 98.6. From 2018 to 2024, the average increased to 103.5.
3) Offensive Rating (pts per 100 poss)
1997-2017: 98.6 ORTG
2018-2024: 103.5 ORTGTop 10 all-time for Team ORTG are from 2018-2024
Current league leader is @nyliberty with 110.0 ORTG (10th all-time)
(5/6) pic.twitter.com/FyKpgpJGjN
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) August 2, 2024
But the three-point revolution has negatively impacted other areas of the game.
Negative Ripple Effects
On the other end of the spectrum are free-throw attempts and offensive rebounds.
Free-throw rate (FTr) is simply a ratio of free throws attempted to the number of field goals attempted. The average free-throw rate in history is 0.30 which means for every 100 field goals a team attempts, they attempt 30 free throws.
According to Basketball Reference, “low ratios usually indicate a lot of jump shots, while high rates are the province of inside players who often take strong shots in traffic down low.” With the league shooting more threes, the FTr has dropped significantly throughout the history of the WNBA. In 2016, the FTr was 0.314. It hit an all-time low of 0.252 just three years later.
The three-point revolution has caused some teams to test extremes.
There have been 1,911 players in the history of the WNBA to qualify for FTr. Jacy Sheldon of Dallas has a FTr of 0.083 which ranks 1,888th. Washington’s Julie Vanloo has a 0.051 FTr ranking her 1,906th. And the Mercury’s Rebecca Allen has a 0.024 FTr which ranks dead last.
Transition has been proven to be the most efficient opportunity in the game. Because of this, teams have conceded offensive rebounds in order to get their defense set.
Offensive rebounding percentage (ORB%) is a common advanced stat used to gauge how effective a team is at rebounding its own misses. Before 2018, the average ORB% was 30.1%. Since the boom of three-point shooting in 2018, the ORB% has dropped to 24.3%.
Negative Ripple Effects
1) FTr (FTA/FGA)
More 3s means less FTs. In 2016, the FTr was 0.314. By 2019, it hit an all-time low of 0.252
2) ORB%
Teams are opting to get back to limit early 3s in transition.
1997-2017: 30.1% ORB%
2018-2024: 24.3% ORB%(6/6) pic.twitter.com/636CnEXeer
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) August 2, 2024
In 2023, the Dallas Wings dominated the offensive glass. They finished the season with a 32.8% ORB%. Second place last year was 26.4%. The gap between Dallas and second place in ORB% was greater than the gap between second place and ninth place.
Yet, the Wings’ 32.8% ORB% only ranks 68th all-time. The Wings lead the league again this year at 30.4%. This ranks 139th in league history. They also have the worst record in the league this year.
Offensive rebounding has become such a non-factor that six teams in 2024 are currently in the bottom 10% in league history, including the Las Vegas Aces. They currently have a 17.6% ORB%, ranking them 350th out of 352 teams in league history. This is just behind the 2023 Aces (18.9% ORB% – 347th)…which is just behind the 2022 Aces (19.9% ORB% – 343rd)…which is just behind the 2021 Aces (21.3% – 331st).
The Conclusion of Lynx at Mercury
Carleton’s transition three was only one of the 19 three-point attempts that the Lynx and Mercury combined to shoot in the fourth quarter alone.
With 6:30 left, Hiedeman extended the Lynx lead to nine with another transition three in front of Tibbetts and the Mercury bench. In the next two minutes, the Mercury were able to close the gap with the aid of three-pointers from Copper and Allen.
With a little over three minutes left, McBride was on the receiving end of a transition three-point attempt. The ball scorched the net and hadn’t even touched the floor before Tibbetts called a timeout with his Mercury team down six. It was McBride’s eighth made three of the night.
With 25.8 seconds left and the Mercury down four, they inbounded the ball to Copper at the top of the key. She took a rhythm dribble to her right, feigned a drive, and drilled a step-back three over Carleton’s outstretched arm. It was now a one-possession game.
The Lynx were able to wind the clock down to 5.3 seconds before the Mercury were able to put the Lynx in the bonus. Carleton was only able to make one of the two free throws. Tibbetts took a timeout to advance the ball and set up a last-second play. All the Mercury needed was a two to tie it.
Cunningham inbounded it to Griner near the corner and received a back screen from Copper. The Lynx defenders switched it and eliminated any hope of creating an advantage. Copper immediately sprinted behind Griner for a handoff. Collier, who was guarding Griner, attempted to contest the pull-up three from Copper in the corner.
With 0.7 seconds left, the ball rattled in as the crowd in Footprint Center crowd went wild.
The game fittingly ended with another three-point attempt. McBride’s wild attempt missed everything, and the Mercury’s comeback was complete.
5.3 THREE SECONDS LEFT.
INBOUND TO BG.
HAND OFF TO KAH.
BUZZER BEATER.MERCURY WIN!!!! pic.twitter.com/S77WMBi3Wp
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) June 8, 2024
The Lynx made 15 threes that night in Phoenix. It was one of ten times this season that a WNBA team has made at least 15 threes. The Lynx and Mercury have combined for half of them.
Minnesota had a 3PAr of 47.9% against Phoenix. It is only the 16th highest 3PAr in any game this season. The two teams combined to have thirteen different players attempt a total of 60 threes. They also combined to have a 42.2% 3PAr – well above the league average of 33.3%.
Was it the highest combined 3PAr game in the league this season?
Not even close.
There have been 18 games this season with a higher 3PAr. In fact, exactly one week earlier the same two teams combined to shoot 46.7% of their field-goal attempts from three. Eight days before that, Phoenix and Washington combined for a 3PAr of 53.1%– the highest this season.
The three-point shot has revolutionized the game, and it doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon.
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