Two dark-horse candidates possess a formula to upset a top contender in the upcoming WNBA playoffs. With a best-of-three format in the first round, anything can happen.
There are currently seven WNBA teams who have clinched playoff berths. Chicago, Atlanta, and Washington are fighting for the final playoff spot.
- New York 29-6
- Minnesota 26-9
- Connecticut 25-10
- Las Vegas 22-13
- Seattle 21-14
- Indiana 19-17
- Phoenix 17-19
- Chicago 13-22
- Atlanta 12-23
- Washington 11-24
Unfortunately, the eight-seed will likely face the red-hot Liberty in the first round. The Liberty are 9-1 this season against Chicago, Atlanta and Washington. They are on a mission to capture their first championship in franchise history.
There won’t be much drama with that series, but the other matchups should produce fireworks. Indiana and Phoenix have a chance to knock out a championship contender in the first round, and they have the personnel and scheme to pull it off.
Indiana Fever
The Fever have struggled defensively throughout the season. They are ranked in the bottom third of the WNBA in defensive rating.
Their schedule at the beginning of the season did not do them any favors. Even so, their 106.2 defensive rating after the Olympic break ranks eighth in the WNBA during that time.
The difference for the Fever has been their offense. The Olympics gave them some much-needed rest.
“I think the Olympic break definitely does help for a team that hasn’t been together for a long time, like us,” said reserve guard Erica Wheeler. “To be able to get these practices and be able to get some real runs in and really hit it hard and have days off I think is super important.”
It clearly worked. The Fever went 11-15 before the Olympic break but are 8-2 afterwards. They have the top-ranked offense since the break with a scorching offensive rating of 112.5.
Led by All-Stars Caitlin Clark, Aliyah Boston and Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana will participate in the postseason for the first time since 2016.
Hot shooting has been their ticket. Over 39% of the Fever’s field-goal attempts are from three since August 15. Only New York has a higher percentage of shots coming from deep (40.5%), but the Liberty have a 33.8% three-point percentage compared to Indiana’s 40.4%.
All-Stars Kelsey Mitchell and Caitlin Clark have been the two catalysts. Mitchell scored 16.9 points per game and shot 36.8% from three in her first 26 games of the season. She has averaged 24.9 points and 43.9% from three in her last 10 games.
Clark pulled off the rare feat of being named WNBA Rookie of the Month and Player of the Month for her efforts in August. She averaged 17.1 points and 32.7% on 8.3 attempted threes per game in the 26 games before the Olympic break. Since then, she has averaged 24.7 points and 38.8% on 10.3 attempted threes per game.
still the Rookie of the Month‼️
Caitlin Clark averaged 24.0 PPG, 8.5 APG, 5.2 RPG, 3.7 3PM to secure her second-straight Rookie of the Month honors. pic.twitter.com/GwmoNTSPFK
— Indiana Fever (@IndianaFever) September 4, 2024
adding player of the month to the resume 🔥
Caitlin Clark (24.0 PPG, 8.5 APG, 5.2 RPG) is the @WNBA Eastern Conference Player of the Month for August.
📝 https://t.co/TRQ6v3l6EZ pic.twitter.com/7QV1uBJFoa
— Indiana Fever (@IndianaFever) September 4, 2024
Additionally, Indiana has increased their per-game averages in assists, offensive rebounds, free throws made, and free throws attempted.
Phoenix Mercury
The Mercury’s season has had its ups and downs.
They stumbled out of the gate going 4-6 without 6-foot-9 center Brittney Griner, who was out with a fractured toe. Like the Fever, the Mercury have struggled to consistently defend this season, and their offense has been the most sporadic in the league.
Phoenix has an offensive rating of 112.7 in their 17 wins compared to a dismal 95.3 in 19 losses. The difference is long-range shooting. In wins, the Mercury make 9.4 threes on 38.1% shooting. That drops to 8.1 threes and 29.7% in losses.
Unlike the Fever, Phoenix has struggled in their return from the Olympics. Four members of the Mercury were on Olympic rosters, with three representing the United States’ gold medal-winning team. Kahleah Copper joined Griner and Diana Taurasi on Team USA, but the quick turnaround has taken its toll on the veterans.
They not like U.S. pic.twitter.com/THx238vwku
— Phoenix Mercury (@PhoenixMercury) August 11, 2024
Underdog Formula
The Fever and the Liberty are going to give up points. Their defenses aren’t going to improve enough to make a difference against the top teams in the league.
But both teams have a strategy that is perfect for playoff upsets: living by the three.
The two teams made at least 11 threes in 17 combined games. They are 12-5 in those games. Indiana’s wins include games against Connecticut and Seattle where the Fever made 13 and 15 threes, respectively. Phoenix beat Las Vegas by making 16 threes. They also beat New York by making 15 threes.
Whoever faces Connecticut in the playoffs is going to have a tough task. Phoenix is 0-3 against the Sun this season with a final regular-season contest on Friday. The Mercury are 11-69 (15.9%) from three in those three games including a dreadful 1-27 performance in late May.
Indiana played the Sun three times in their first 13 games, losing all three. On August 28, the Fever went 13-30 from three at home and defeated the Sun 84-80.
Minnesota presents a more favorable matchup for both the Fever and the Mercury. Each team has defeated the Lynx, who boast the league’s top defense. Minnesota is holding opponents to a league-low 30.1% from three due to their aggressive rotations. Minnesota’s opponents, however, have connected on 35.2% of their threes in the nine Lynx losses.
There is a path to the semifinals for the Mercury and the Fever. Each team has firepower and experience playing the style they need to play to pull the massive upset.
The first two games of the first round are at the home of the top seed. If either can catch fire and steal a game on the road, they will be welcomed by a raucous home crowd.
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