The Lead’s Mac Pham contributed to this article.
The Detroit Lions return to the NFC Divisional round for the second straight year, hosting the Washington Commanders.
The Lions are playing their best season in team history, but this was no surprise. They had high expectations coming in after ending last season with a disappointing loss in the NFC Championship Game. This year, they are looking for more.
All season, the Lions have proven to be an offensive powerhouse. Meanwhile, the Commanders use every second of the game to scrape by. Their last five games were decided in the final seconds. The Commanders have the energy and talent to remain competitive despite their losses.
(Lack of) Playoff History
The Commanders just won their first playoff game since 2005, and behind rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, their 12-5 season was a big surprise.
The last time they won multiple postseason games in one season was 1991 when they beat the Lions in the NFC Championship Game and then the Bills in the Super Bowl.
The Lions are hosting the Divisional round again after last season’s playoff run— their first since 1992. Washington has three Super Bowls and two NFL Championship games under their belt. On the other hand, the Lions are still hunting for their first Super Bowl.
What are the Lions expecting?
The Lions are an offensive powerhouse.
They average 146 rushing and 277 passing yards per game. The Dan Campbell basics should be enough to propel them to the NFC Championship Game. They need seemingly simple plays with just enough chaos sprinkled in to keep the Commanders guessing.
David Montgomery was rumored to return before the divisional game. On defense, John Cominsky, Pat O’Connor, and Terrion Arnold are questionable to return this week. The defense held down the Vikings in Week 18.
If the Lions fall to the Commanders, it will be in a similar fashion to Week 15.
What are the Commanders expecting?
These teams haven’t played this season, so the Commanders don’t exactly know what to expect going face-to-face with whatever Ben Johnson throws at them. Interestingly, the Lions have performed better the second time they face a team this season. The Commanders have done the same this season, but they had two divisional losses.
Jayden Daniels has led this team both in the air and the ground, leading the team with 891 rushing yards. His quick run instinct may be beneficial for evading the Lions’ defensive line. If the Commanders can pull off a win, it will be in a close and heroic fashion like many of their games this season.
Film Breakdown
Daniels recorded a 90.3 QBR, which is among the top three quarterbacks against the blitz.
So, basically, don’t blitz the rookie at a high rate.
That’s the right call by the Bengals, too. Make him make one of the best throws you’ll see, and Jayden Daniels did it
— Steve Palazzolo (@StevePalazzolo_) September 24, 2024
The Commanders are in maximum protection here, but they do not pick up the corner blitz.
Knowing he will take a hit, Daniels launches a perfect moon ball to Terry McLaurin on a double move in single coverage for a touchdown.
On the other side, the Lions’ defense will need to rely on their front four and force Daniels to throw against seven defenders in coverage.
Za'Darius Smith sacks Darnold inside the 5!
📺: #MINvsDET on NBC/Peacock
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/HFix4IqGLr— NFL (@NFL) January 6, 2025
As the Lions rush four, Za’Darius Smith gets past the little nudge from the tight end, spins off the running back, and sacks Sam Darnold with the help of Levi Onwuzurike collapsing the pocket.
The Lions will need key plays like that to contain Daniels.
The Commanders’ pass defense was third in passing yards per game allowed (189), going against a Lions passing offense that was second in pass yards per game (263). They need their pass rush to generate consistent pressure without sacrificing their back end.
Dante Fowler Jr. leads the team in sacks (10.5).
.@AtlantaFalcons @Commanders Dante Fowler jr with a sack/fumble giving him 10 1/2. The magic number for any DL/ pass rusher pic.twitter.com/YNEzRuqUn7
— Brian Baldinger (@BaldyNFL) December 30, 2024
He lines up outside, loops on a twist pass rush, and gets held. Fowler Jr. shows the strength to break through and force a strip sack.
One of the matchups to watch will be Amon Ra St. Brown versus Marshon Lattimore in man coverage.
Lattimore struggled in the wild card round when traveling with Mike Evans, allowing seven receptions for 92 yards and a touchdown.
What is your confidence level in Amon Ra St Brown going into week 15⁉️
Weeks 1-10 WR 1️⃣0️⃣‼️💪🏽
WEEKS 12-14 wr 2️⃣8️⃣ 😧pic.twitter.com/gyOmlZ5KzN— PlayerProfiler NOW+ (@Profiler_Now) December 10, 2024
At the top of the screen, St. Brown gives a stutter step and does a great job keeping his feet inbounds on the touchdown catch. Credit Jared Goff for throwing early in anticipation.
The Commanders had the third-worst run defense in the regular season, allowing 137 rushing yards a game.
In the Wild Card game, the Commanders held Tampa Bay to 101 rushing yards on 25 run attempts. They must replicate that performance against a Lions rushing attack that features the Sonics and Knuckles duo of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, who combine to average 138 of the team’s 146 rushing yards.
With the game on the line, on third and inches, the Commanders have the “A Gap” completely clogged presnap. Dorance Armstrong (#92) does a terrific job penetrating the backfield, going unblocked, and after missing the initial tackle, makes the second effort and ends the play.
Game Time
The game kicks off at Ford Field on Saturday night at 8pm ET.
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