The Las Vegas Aces had just traveled to Seattle on July 10th and defeated the Storm in a pivotal contest.
It was a hard-fought 84-79 victory, one in which put the Aces a half-game ahead of Seattle for fourth place in the WNBA standings. The Aces had now won eight of their previous nine games, but they faced a potential trap game in Atlanta two days later.
With 2:21 left to play in the second quarter, the Aces led the Dream 38-30. Atlanta’s Tina Charles forced a contested jumper. The errant shot was gobbled up by the Aces’ A’ja Wilson and she hit point guard Chelsea Gray with an outlet pass. It was Wilson’s ninth rebound of the first half.
Gray then passed to Wilson, who was trailing the play, at the top of the key as she sized up a three-point attempt. She had already hit three straight threes that quarter, and the Dream’s Cheyenne Parker lunged out to potentially contest this one. Wilson pulled down a quick shot fake and knifed through the defense in one dribble, finishing with a left-handed lay-up.
The Dream, now down by 10, dribbled down and tried entering the ball into Parker at the elbow. In a flash, Wilson deflected Haley Jones’ pass with her right hand and retrieved it. Although she had numbers in transition, she took it right at Jones and drew a shooting foul. She made both free throws giving her 19 points in the first half.
The Aces finished off the Dream in the second half, winning 84-70. Wilson ended the game with 33 points. She shot 10-19 on two-pointers, 3-4 on three-pointers, and 4-4 from the free-throw line. She also had 18 rebounds, three steals and five blocks.
Wilson can do it all on both ends of the floor. She’s already an all-time great in WNBA history. She won the 2018 Rookie of the Year Award and the Defensive Player of the Year Award in 2022 and 2023. She was named All-WNBA in each of the last four seasons and was named MVP in 2020 and 2022. Despite not winning the MVP last season, she was named Finals MVP. This year, she is the heavy favorite to win her third MVP this season as she attempts to lead the Aces to their third consecutive WNBA championship.
This season, however, is shaping up to be her masterpiece.
A’ja Wilson (@_ajawilson22) is taking the @WNBA by storm.
Already a 2-time MVP, 2-time DPOY, and 2-time defending champion for the @LVAces, she has been named #WNBA Player of the Month in May and June this season.
A 🧵 of appreciation 👇
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) July 8, 2024
Basic Stats
In 2006, Diana Taurasi lit the league on fire by scoring 25.2 points per game (PPG). Two years later, she scored 24.1 PPG to become the second player to score over 24 PPG. No other player in history had done it…until last year.
Seattle’s Jewell Loyd scored 939 points – the most in history. Unfortunately, she played four more regular-season games than Taurasi. Loyd became the third player to score over 24 points per game, but her 24.7 PPG is second to Taurasi’s.
Wilson is on pace to shatter both records. She is projected to become the first 1,000-point scorer in a single season in history, and she is currently leading the league with 27.2 PPG. This is even more impressive considering she’s a center. Lauren Jackson scored 23.8 PPG for Seattle in 2007, good for fifth all-time and first among frontcourt players.
Wilson is also on pace to shatter league records for field goals made per game with 10.2 (current record is 8.8 by Tina Charles in 2021), and two-point field goals made per game with 9.5 (current record is 8.7 by Brittney Griner in 2019).
The current record for rebounds per game is 11.88 set in 2018 by Minnesota’s Sylvia Fowles. Wilson is edging out Fowles with 11.96, but rookie Angel Reese is right on her heels at 11.92.
If that isn’t enough, Wilson would finish in the top 20 all-time in the following averages: field-goal attempts (4th), two-point field goal attempts (2nd), free throws made (11th), free-throw attempts (16th) and blocks (14th).
Win Shares
Win shares (WS) is an “estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player” (Basketball Reference). It is not surprising that the two best seasons for win shares come from 2023; it was the first season with 40 games.
The length of the regular season has changed throughout the WNBA’s short 28-season history. Each team played 28 regular-season games in the inaugural 1997 season. That total increased to 30 games in 1998, and 32 games in 1999 where it remained constant until 2002.
The league hit a groove by playing 34 games per season between 2003-2019. The COVID-19 pandemic shortened the 2020 season to 22 games. It was moved to 32 in 2021, then to all-time high of 36 in 2022.
Last season, the number hit another milestone moving the regular season to 40 games. That’s where it currently sits this year.
Because of the constant change in games played, stats like win shares are difficult to compare across seasons.
Using Basketball Reference’s WNBA Rate Statistic Requirements for the current season, each season’s win shares were adjusted for the maximum number of games played per season. The number of games played by each team so far was used for the 2024 season.
The top three all-time in adjusted win shares (aWS) are Cynthia Cooper in 1997 (13.4), Cooper again in 1998 (13.3), and Sheryl Swoopes in 2000 (12.3). Cooper and Swoopes teamed up in the WNBA’s first dynasty as the Houston Comets won the first four WNBA championships from 1997-2000.
Wilson is on pace to have 11.7 WS at the end of the season. This would put her in fourth all-time, just behind the Comets’ legends. In 2023, she finished with 10.4 WS – ahead of league MVP Breanna Stewart’s 10.3.
She is also favored to win her third straight Defensive Player of the Year. Of the 27 Defensive Players of the Year in history, 22 had at least 3.0 in adjusted defensive win shares (aDWS). Wilson had 3.5 last season, but only 2.7 in 2022.
Wilson has 4.0 aDWS this season. Only eight players in history have reached that number, and only one since 2006 (Sylvia Fowles – 4.0 aDWS, 2017).
There are seven players, including Wilson, this season who have over 3.0 aDWS by season’s end. The only season in history with seven players with at least 3.0 aDWS was 2000.
Advanced Stats
Player Efficiency Rating (PER) is an advanced statistic that essentially adds all of a particular player’s positive stats and subtracts the negative stats, producing one number that rates a player’s performance.
Of the top 16 marks in the league history, 11 were from MVP seasons. Every MVP in league history has had a PER of over 23, with the average MVP season at 28.9. Jackson owns the record with a PER of 35.0 from her dominant 2007 MVP season.
Jackson’s 2006 season was arguably even better than her 2007 season when analyzing advanced statistics, but she took fourth in the MVP race despite her incredible PER of 34.5. Interestingly, A’ja Wilson’s 2023 PER of 32.9 is third all-time. Like Jackson, she didn’t win MVP either.
This year, Wilson is leading the league with a PER of 35.6. She would become the third player in history to post a PER of at least 33. For further context, no NBA player has had a season with a PER of at least 33. Well behind Wilson this season is Brittney Griner (25.4) and Stewart (25.1).
Wilson is omnipresent, and the stats reflect the effect she has on opposing offenses
Team Stats:
*9.7% of Opp FGA are at the rim, by far the lowest (2nd is 15.2%)
*Opp 2P%: 46.0% (2nd)
*DRB%: 80.6% (1st)IND Stats:
*PER: 35.3 (1st)…2nd is 25.1
*Win Shares: 5.6 (1st)(6/6) pic.twitter.com/G99x92mxIn
— Kenyon Wingenbach (@FourTheGameWBB) July 8, 2024
Usage Percentage (USG%) is an “estimate of the percentage of team plays used by a player while (they were) on the floor” (Basketball Reference). Only nine players in history have had a USG% of at least 32%. Wilson’s USG% of 31.9% is second in the league this year to Phoenix’s Kahleah Copper (33.1%). Wilson is currently 11th all-time, while Copper is 6th.
Turnover Percentage (TO%) is an “estimate of turnovers per 100 plays” (Basketball Reference). There have been 38 players in history who have had higher than 30% USG% (including Copper and Wilson). Their average TO% is 12.7%.
Only two players have had a TO% of less than 9%. In 2016, Tina Charles had a USG% of 30.7% with 8.4% TO%. In 2002, Jackson had a 30.1% USG% with an 8.6% TO%. Wilson currently has a 31.9% USG% with an incredible 6.4 TO%.
Season Outlook
Led by Wilson, the Aces have averaged an extremely low TO% in her seven-year career. Of the top 15 seasons of all-time in terms of TO%, Wilson’s Aces teams appear six times. This includes the 2024 season, where they currently place 7th all-time with a 12.6% TO%.
Limiting turnovers combined with hot shooting is a recipe for success. In the last two seasons, WNBA teams have a record of 167-48 (0.777) when shooting above average and turning the ball over less than average.
The 2023 Aces finished with the highest effective field-goal percentage (eFG%) in history at 55.3% and the fifth-lowest TO% at 12.5%. In 2022, the Aces’ 52.8% eFG% ranks 12th all-time, while their 12.3% TO% is the third lowest ever.
This year’s team fits that same mold. They are currently 17th all-time in eFG% (52.2%) and 7th all-time in TO% (12.6%).
The Aces have put themselves in a position to make a run at another title after the Olympic break.
A’ja Wilson is the reason why.
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